Working Papers
Climate shift uncertainty and economic damages (with Romain Fillon and Gernot Wagner). Most recent version: PDF
Deforestation and structural change – The case of tourism in Brazil. Most recent version: PDF
The socioeconomic benefits of weather forecasts (with Hannah Farkas, Marta Talevi, Paolo Avner, Bramka Arga Jafino and Moussa Sidibe). Most recent version: PDF
Publications and accepted papers
Global inequalities in weather forecasts (with Jeffrey Shrader). Nature Communications, 2026. PDF. Selected coverage: Our World in Data, Resources for the Future, VoxDev, Phys.org, Hessischer Rundfunk (TV interview), Deutschlandfunk, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Climate policy diffusion across US states (with Mitali Das and Gregor Schwerhoff). Energy Economics, 2026. PDF
Economic specialization and heterogeneous temperature-economy relationships suggest net costs of climate change in Europe (with Ben Groom and Sefi Roth). Nature Communications, 2026. PDF. Selected coverage: Deutschlandfunk, To Vima
A methodology for comprehensive national climate damage assessments applied to the UK (with James Rising, Simon Dietz, Marion Dumas, Jarmo Kikstra, Timothy M. Lenton). Nature Climate Change, 2026. PDF
Weather Forecasts Become More Important for Reducing Mortality as the Climate Warms (with Jeffrey Shrader, Stephan Thies, Laura Bakkensen, and Derek Lemoine). PNAS, 2026. PDF. Selected coverage: Meteored, Earth.com
Global variation in the preferred temperature for recreational outdoor activity. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2024. PDF
Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2024. PDF
Global benefits of the international diffusion of carbon pricing policies (with Adil Mohommad and Gregor Schwerhoff). Nature Climate Change, 2023. PDF. Selected coverage: US Environmental Protection Agency, OECD, World Bank, WTO / IMF / UNCTAD, European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, Citizens’ Climate Lobby, Institute for Policy Integrity
Temperature variability and long-run economic development. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2023. PDF
Weather drives variation in COVID-19 transmission and detection (with Ana De Menezes-Silva and James Rising). Environmental Research: Climate, 2023. PDF
Policy sequencing towards carbon pricing among the world’s largest emitters (with Adil Mohommad and Gregor Schwerhoff). Nature Climate Change, 2022. PDF. Selected coverage: OECD, World Bank, WTO / IMF / UNCTAD, IMF, World Economic Forum, Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action